How many writers are even thinking about that though? If they shut it off tomorrow, how many would have a list within the last year?

I'm pretty sure all of them. Because they'll never shut it without advance warning, due to the backlash.

Of course they wouldn't give warning.

Backlash is almost always good publicity.

And a warning would make their content providers more able to leave.

Of course, if they were given warning they would export their subscribers. I am talking about if it was cut off without warning. I do not think the majority would have a list within the last year.

Two answers to that:

1) That's on them (those not exporting their lists as backup).

2) Almost zero chance happening without warning anyway.