At the risk of being self-congratulatory, I submit an independently arrived-at first conceptiopn of Bayesian thinking.
I arrived at a Bayesian solution one night to my own problem indepedent of ever learning Bayes. My undergrad was in Physics, but I don't recall going over Bayes before that night. The first time I heard about Bayes, that I recall, was pg's bio, which had to be after Reddit was founded.
Anyway, Much like tonight, I awoke in the middle of the night realizing I could calculate my odds of getting into medical school. The illustration is the key:
I arrived at a Bayesian solution one night to my own problem indepedent of ever learning Bayes. My undergrad was in Physics, but I don't recall going over Bayes before that night. The first time I heard about Bayes, that I recall, was pg's bio, which had to be after Reddit was founded.
Anyway, Much like tonight, I awoke in the middle of the night realizing I could calculate my odds of getting into medical school. The illustration is the key:
http://nielsolson.us/MedSchool/#Odds
This author's barrel of eggs is way to hard for me to understand. A square with a side of 1 much easier.
However, his method is how I calculated the answer for his problem: just think about 10,000 women (cheap trick to avoid fractions until the very end)