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The difference is the AI researchers have clear plots showing capabilities scaling with GPUs and there's not a sign that it is flattening so they actually have a case for saying that AGI is possible at N GPUs.


Sauce? How do you even measure "capabilities" in that regard, just writing answers to standard tests? Because being able to ace a test doesn't mean it's AGI, it means its good at taking standard tests.


This is the canonical paper. Nothing I've seen seems to indicate the curves are flattening, you can ask "scaling what" but the trend is clear.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361




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