Elon often makes relative statements even if it is reported in an absolute way. In this example he called 16 refuel launches „extremely unlikely“ (but possible) and „may only need 4 launches“ should be read also as an unlikely possibility presented by him.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1425474903436939266

Anyway that was 3 years ago and the 150 ton payload Starship 3 won’t likely be ready for HLS. Maybe if Artenis is delayed because of Orion reasons.