"Sure a human level computer AI gets 'free' speed doubling every 18 months, but so does the intelligence that surrounds an augmented human. Just look at how much more intelligence we have available to us now as compared to 20 years ago."
A motivated human-level AI could get free speed doubling a lot more quickly than every 18 months -- it could acquire more resources that already exist, it could increase the speed of progress in hardware improvements, and, perhaps most importantly, it might be able to improve itself to achieve a qualitatively superhuman intelligence rather than just quantitatively. Sections 3: "Underestimating the power of intelligence" and 7: "Rates of intelligence increase" of the Yudkowsky paper I linked before, "AI as a Negative and Positive Factor in Global Risk", address this well. http://singinst.org/upload/artificial-intelligence-risk.pdf
I think it's a mistake to compare an AI superintelligence to anything on earth currently, like market forces. An AI superintelligence could probably improve itself a lot faster than any market could.
"Sure a human level computer AI gets 'free' speed doubling every 18 months, but so does the intelligence that surrounds an augmented human. Just look at how much more intelligence we have available to us now as compared to 20 years ago."
A motivated human-level AI could get free speed doubling a lot more quickly than every 18 months -- it could acquire more resources that already exist, it could increase the speed of progress in hardware improvements, and, perhaps most importantly, it might be able to improve itself to achieve a qualitatively superhuman intelligence rather than just quantitatively. Sections 3: "Underestimating the power of intelligence" and 7: "Rates of intelligence increase" of the Yudkowsky paper I linked before, "AI as a Negative and Positive Factor in Global Risk", address this well. http://singinst.org/upload/artificial-intelligence-risk.pdf
I think it's a mistake to compare an AI superintelligence to anything on earth currently, like market forces. An AI superintelligence could probably improve itself a lot faster than any market could.